Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
